Clik here to view.
Swingback or stasis? A comparison of phone vs online polls
Having seen the interesting piece by Adam Ludlow at ComRes, which highlighted the differences between recent phone and online polls, I thought I’d put together a chart comparing the spread between the...
View ArticleDaily polling roundup 22nd April
Today was a quiet polling day with only one national poll. YouGov/Sun showed a continued close race, with Labour fractionally ahead this time: YouGov/Sun: CON 33 (-2) LAB 34 (=) LIB 7 (=) UKIP 14 (+1)...
View ArticleDaily polling roundup 26th April
This weekend saw the release of four new national voting intention polls. Opinium’s weekly poll for the Observer showed the Conservatives fractionally ahead rather than the three point lead it had...
View ArticleIs there a shy Tory factor in 2015?
As the election approaches, a hotly debated topic has been the comparison to 1992, when a catastrophic opinion polling failure led almost everyone to predict a hung parliament, with Neil Kinnock as...
View ArticleClik here to view.
10 days on, a look back at the “Shy Tory” prediction
See also: Is there a shy Tory factor in 2015? in which NCP predicted the polling failure the day before the election. Ten days ago I had to make the biggest call in the year or so that I’ve been...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Boundary changes – the devil is in the detail
The possibility of the boundary review being on the basis of a 650 seat house of commons, rather than 600 as originally planned, throws up some interesting questions: David Cameron likely to drop plans...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Is there evidence of pollsters herding?
Yesterday, the Telegraph published an article by Dan Hodges accusing UK pollsters of herding. For those unfamiliar with the term, herding is the unnatural convergence of results between polling...
View ArticleClik here to view.
20 percent of British people are liars
Image: Delbert/HD Shock As pollsters, academics and number crunchers work to unravel the causes of the polling debacle, one problem for many of us has been having a lack of individual-level data to...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Who’s right on Corbyn? (Plus recent polling)
Last week we got three voting intention polls, the most in any week since the election. However most of the debate at the weekend centred around the Labour leadership, as Survation and ComRes published...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Are the Tories really 15 points ahead? Is Corbyn really the most popular leader?
The release of the latest ComRes online poll for today’s Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror certainly got people talking. Its toplines showed a 15 point Conservative lead, the biggest since...
View ArticleSuper Thursday preview
It’s that time of year again! In 2016 we have pretty much everything besides a general election. And while I’ve been very tied up with the referendum, I’ve had a few people asking for my thoughts. So...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Super Thursday postmortem (and what it tells us about Brexit)
So the votes have (finally) been counted everywhere and the results are known, so the unpicking can begin. Each of the elections deserves proper analysis in its own right, which I’ll do in due course,...
View ArticleClik here to view.
London: Whose second preferences went where?
Adam Bienkov over at Politics.co.uk has flagged up the official first and second preference matrix from London Elects. This is a rare chance to examine the relationships between support for different...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Forecast update (and why it’s been so volatile this week)
This week is turning out to be pretty eventful. Tonight’s Evening Standard carries a (phone) poll from Ipsos MORI showing a huge 18-point lead (up from 10 points last month), following a less dramatic...
View ArticleClik here to view.
What’s the real winning line for David Cameron?
David Cameron announced Britain’s EU plebiscite as an “in out referendum”. On paper it is just that – a binary decision. But in practice, referendums are not binary – the margin of victory matters too....
View ArticleClik here to view.
You hadn’t forgotten about the Tooting by-election, had you?
Here’s something you don’t see very often – a post that’s not about the EU referendum! Sadiq Khan’s victory in the London Mayoral election has left a vacancy to be filled in his former London seat of...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Conservative leadership: May gets a huge headstart
In the next hour, the first round of voting will end in the Conservative leadership election, which will determine the UK’s next Prime Minister. The five candidates will compete in up to three rounds...
View ArticleClik here to view.
David Cameron’s electoral record
As David Cameron leaves Number 10 Downing Street, having been Prime Minister for six years and Conservative Party leader for almost 11, his leadership and legacy are being appraised from just about...
View ArticleClik here to view.
First look at the new boundaries
So after much speculation, the boundary Commissions in England and Wales have published their initial proposals for the consituencies to be contested at the next general election. We’ve already seen...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Analysis: Do objections to the boundary review stack up?
The publication of the proposals for the new boundaries in England and Wales has reignited a debate that has been rumbling on, throughout this decade, about the fairness or otherwise of the process by...
View Article
